Given the coronavirus pandemic’s global influence at present, it seems that much of Asia is in for tougher headwinds for the remainder of the year. The virus is set to significantly impact India’s banking sector, with ratings agencies virtually across the board forecasting a dramatic fall in income for most lenders operating in the South Asian country. According to Moody’s, for instance, declining interest rates mean that current- and saving-account deposit rates will decline much less than lending rates, which will continue to erode the net-interest margins of banks.
“India is seeing a very sharp economic contraction and had high non-performing loans leading into COVID-19,” noted S&P Global, with the ratings agency expecting the sector’s weak assets to surge to 13 to 14 percent of gross loans by the end of the fiscal year in March 2021, from around 8.5 percent in March of this year. Non-bank lenders will prove to be a particular headache, given they account for 8.8 percent of the banking system’s loans.
A similar outlook is expected for Indonesia. Data from the financial regulator, the Financial Services Authority (Otoritas Jasa Keuangan, or OJK), shows that the nonperforming loan (NPL) ratio rose to 3.1 percent in June from 3.0 percent in May, while the ratio for financing companies increased to 5.12 percent in June from May’s 4.41 percent, despite a relaxation of loan-repayment rules enacted by the regulator during the month. But NPL ratios may not increase much further during the remainder of the year. Bank Central Asia (BCA) economist David Sumual projects a ratio of 3 to 4 percent by the end of 2020. “Banks with portfolios in sectors such as mining, trade, manufacturing, tourism and retail will be those with the highest NPL as those sectors are the most affected by the pandemic,” he said.
China, meanwhile, is showing particular concern for its smaller banks, with many being exposed to small and medium-sized companies that have been badly impacted by COVID-19 and remain heavily indebted. In response, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission (CBIRC) has sought to rein in smaller banks by limiting their structured-product businesses, such as potentially higher-return derivatives linked to currencies, commodities or stocks. And the China Banking Association (CBA), an organisation of Chinese banks supervised by the People’s Bank of China (PBOC), recently released a statement regarding the issue: “[Because of the] coronavirus epidemic and other factors, pressure is increasing on non-performing assets, due to the corporate governance of some small and medium-sized financial institutions and the return of disorder in markets. The potential risks and challenges remain relatively large.”
On the plus side, the CBIRC has reportedly told foreign banks operating in China that they won’t need to extend loan relief to small and medium-sized companies. The exemption applies to foreign lenders throughout the country and, as such, will mean that they are not part of the extension to the relief program that was implemented in May.
Banks’ credit loans to individuals in South Korea soared for the second straight month in July, as industry data showed housing costs rising significantly. Outstanding unsecured loans to individuals by five major Korea lenders—KB Kookmin Bank, Shinhan Bank, Hana Bank, Woori Bank and NH Nonghyup Bank—amounted to 120.2 trillion won ($101 billion), which was 2.3 percent higher than June’s levels.
Australian banks are unlikely to enjoy the same level of earnings they were experiencing prior to the coronavirus. A recent report from S&P Global Ratings predicts a substantial decline in earnings for all lenders as losses from COVID-19 exacerbate long-term cyclical pressures—such as lower rates, reduced fee income and squeezed margins along with sluggish household spending and more intense competition from non-traditional financial players—to weigh heavily on profits.
New Zealand’s banking sector remains firmly in recovery mode at present, meanwhile, and the country’s central bank recently warned that its overall response to the crisis would have a major impact on the development of the financial system during the coming decade. According to the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s deputy governor, Geoff Bascand, banks should focus on lending to productive, job-rich sectors to ensure the success of the economic recovery. “The banking sector could choose to hunker down and seek to ride out the storm until the good times roll around again, or it could continue to step up and play a crucial part in supporting New Zealand’s economic recovery,” Bascand said.
>>>ASIA AWARD WINNERS
BANKING CEO OF THE YEAR
Asia
Jahja Setiaatmadja
Bank Central Asia (BCA) (Indonesia)
**********
BEST CUSTOMER SERVICE
PROVIDER OF THE YEAR
Asia
Asia Commercial Bank (ACB) (Vietnam)
**********
Best Banking Group India
ICICI Group
Best Banking Group Indonesia
BCA Group
Best Banking Group South Korea
KB Financial Group
Best Investment Bank Of The Year China
CITIC Securities
Best Investment Bank Of The Year Malaysia
Affin Hwang Capital
Best Commercial Bank Of The Year Bangladesh
Brac Bank
Best Commercial Bank Of The Year Cambodia
Prince Bank
Best Commercial Bank Of The Year China
Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Ltd
Best Commercial Bank Of The Year India
ICICI Bank
Best Commercial Bank Of The Year Indonesia
Bank Central Asia (BCA)
Best Commercial Bank Of The Year Malaysia
Malayan Banking Berhad (Maybank)
Best Commercial Bank Of The Year Mongolia
Trade & Development Bank of Mongolia (TDB)
Best Commercial Bank Of The Year Myanmar
Yoma Bank
Best Commercial Bank Of The Year Nepal
NIC Asia Bank
Best Commercial Bank Of The Year Pakistan
HBL (Habib Bank)
Best Commercial Bank Of The Year Philippines
BDO Unibank
Best Commercial Bank Of The Year South Korea
Kookmin Bank
Best Commercial Bank Of The Year Sri Lanka
Commercial Bank of Ceylon PLC
Best Commercial Bank Of The Year Vietnam
Asia Commercial Bank (ACB)
Best Private Bank Of The Year India
HDFC Bank
Best Private Bank Of The Year South Korea
KEB Hana Bank
Best Innovation In Retail Banking Bangladesh
Dutch-Bangla Bank
Best Innovation In Retail Banking Cambodia
ACLEDA Bank
Best Innovation In Retail Banking China
China Construction Bank
Best Innovation In Retail Banking India
Axis Bank
Best Innovation In Retail Banking Indonesia
Bank Central Asia (BCA)
Best Innovation In Retail Banking Japan
Rakuten Bank
Best Innovation In Retail Banking Malaysia
Malayan Banking Berhad (Maybank)
Best Innovation In Retail Banking Myanmar
Yoma Bank
Best Innovation In Retail Banking Nepal
Mega Bank
Best Innovation In Retail Banking Pakistan
Silkbank
Best Innovation In Retail Banking Philippines
BDO Unibank
Best Innovation In Retail Banking South Korea
Kookmin Bank
Best Innovation in Retail Banking Sri Lanka
Sampath Bank
Best Innovation in Retail Banking Thailand
Government Savings Bank
Best Innovation In Retail Banking Vietnam
Asia Commercial Bank (ACB)
Best Islamic Bank Of The Year Bangladesh
Islami Bank Bangladesh Limited
Best Islamic Bank Of The Year Indonesia
Bank Syariah Mandiri
Best Islamic Bank Of The Year Malaysia
Malayan Banking Berhad (Maybank Islamic)
Best Islamic Bank Of The Year Pakistan
Meezan Bank
>>>AUSTRALASIA AWARD WINNERS
BANKING CEO OF THE YEAR
Australasia
Matt Comyn
Commonwealth Bank of Australia
**********
BEST CUSTOMER SERVICE
PROVIDER OF THE YEAR
Australasia
Bank Australia
**********
Best Investment Bank Of The Year Australia
Macquarie Group
Best Commercial Bank Of The Year Australia
National Australia Bank Limited
Best Commercial Bank Of The Year New Zealand
Bank of New Zealand (BNZ)
Best Innovation In Retail Banking Australia
Commonwealth Bank of Australia
Best Innovation In Retail Banking New Zealand
Bank of New Zealand (BNZ)