By Charles Davenport, Partner, Knight Frank
The prime housing market in Surrey and Elmbridge has entered a period of recalibration, with the £3-10 million sector experiencing softening prices and shifting buyer dynamics that reflect the broader challenges facing super-prime markets across the United Kingdom. While best-in-class properties continue to sell well, the market is navigating headwinds from tax-policy changes, a reduction in international buyers and political uncertainty that has proved somewhat stifling for transactions.
A tale of two property types
Furze Field, Oxshott, Leatherhead, Surrey, KT22
Within the prime Surrey market, a clear divide has emerged between turnkey properties and those requiring significant work. Best-in-class homes that are ready to move into have continued to sell well, attracting buyers who value certainty and the draw of a turnkey purchase. However, properties requiring refurbishment are experiencing notably longer marketing periods, as many buyers remain reluctant to take on major renovation projects with the uncertainties surrounding costs and timescales.
Furze Field, Oxshott, Leatherhead, Surrey, KT22
This hesitancy reflects a broader shift in buyer confidence. When economic and political uncertainty looms large, the prospect of managing a substantial refurbishment whilst costs remain unpredictable becomes significantly less appealing, even for high-net-worth individuals (HNWIs) who might typically relish such projects.
Pricing strategy has become paramount. In the broader country market, sale prices were on average 94 percent of the initial asking price in the second quarter of this year, compared to the average of 97.3 percent seen this time last year. This trend has been mirrored in the Surrey prime market, where realistic pricing from the outset has proven to be the key differentiator between properties that sell and those that remain on the market for longer.
Overseas buyer activity
Four Acres, Cobham, Surrey, KT11 (this property is currently available off market)
Perhaps one of the most significant changes I’ve seen in the Surrey/Elmbridge market has been the reduction in international-buyer activity. Despite the presence of ACS International Schools Cobham, which has historically been a significant draw for overseas families, the region has seen far fewer international buyers than usual this year.
This decline comes as no surprise, given the exodus of high-net-worth individuals relocating overseas due to recent non-domiciled tax changes and uncertainty surrounding the forthcoming budget.
Four Acres, Cobham, Surrey, KT11 (this property is currently available off market)
The consequences have been tangible not only in my market but also at the national level. Wealthy investors have already begun to leave the United Kingdom, and Knight Frank recently calculated that the government has lost more than £400 million in stamp duty revenue due to subdued activity in high-value property markets. For Surrey and Elmbridge, traditionally popular with internationally mobile families seeking excellent schools and easy access to Central London, this represents a significant shift in the buyer profile.
International residents based in the region have expressed concerns about what the future may hold. This uncertainty has prompted many to put their plans on hold until there is more clarity—the upcoming budget offers the government a chance to reinvigorate the market, ideally by introducing a globally competitive framework that encourages high-net-worth individuals abroad to return, while also attracting sustained foreign investment.
Market dynamics and the importance of pricing well
High Drive, Oxshott, Leatherhead, Surrey, KT22
The period leading up to and following the general election created a stop-start pattern in the market. Last year, the election caused a predictable slowdown, but strong sales were achieved at all pricing levels in the first and second quarters of this year. However, since the budget announcements and property-tax proposals, the market has experienced renewed hesitancy.
Generally, prices in Surrey’s prime market have softened since the beginning of the year and continue to do so. This downward pressure reflects the imbalance between supply and demand that has characterised much of the country market this year.
High Drive, Oxshott, Leatherhead, Surrey, KT22
In the second quarter of 2025, for every new sales instruction in the country market, there were 5.9 new prospective buyers. With increased supply and reduced competition, buyers have found themselves in the strongest negotiating position in over seven years. Properties that might have sold at their asking prices during the pandemic-era boom now require more realistic pricing strategies and often significant negotiations.
The key to success in this environment has been pricing properties correctly from the outset. When vendors get the pricing right, buyers respond quickly, but overpriced properties struggle to generate meaningful interest in a market in which there are so many other options.
Looking ahead to 2026
Despite the current challenges, the outlook for 2026 remains cautiously positive. Historically, it takes approximately six months for the market to recalibrate following significant changes. We project that from spring 2026 onwards, we will be trading well.
The North Surrey region’s fundamental draws remain robust. The area continues to attract families relocating from South West London, drawn by its excellent schooling, lifestyle offerings and manageable commuting times to Central London. These core drivers will not change, regardless of the short-term political uncertainty.
North Surrey and Elmbridge remain hugely desirable locations. The combination of green spaces, outstanding schools, strong transport links and proximity to London ensures that the region will retain its appeal for both domestic and international buyers, even as the composition of that buyer pool evolves.
As the market moves through this period of adjustment, the winners will be those vendors who price realistically, present properties in excellent condition and work with agents who understand the nuanced dynamics of the current environment. For buyers, particularly those with flexibility and access to ready capital, the current market presents opportunities that may not continue once confidence returns and competition intensifies.
The Surrey and Elmbridge prime market has weathered numerous cycles over the decades. Whilst the current period presents distinct challenges, the underlying desirability of the region and the enduring needs of families seeking quality housing in well-connected locations suggest that this market will emerge ready for renewed growth.
Charles Davenport is a Partner at Knight Frank, a global independent real-estate consultancy founded in 1896 and headquartered in London. With over 600 offices and 20,000 professionals worldwide, it offers expert residential, commercial, and professional property services. Charles is a highly experienced property specialist with more than 20 years at Knight Frank. He has led the Cobham office since its launch in 2007, focusing on residential sales and development across North Surrey. He collaborates closely with the Esher and Weybridge offices, forming part of Knight Frank’s UK Residential network of over 50 offices.