By Joseph Moss, International Banker
On November 19, reports emerged that US President Donald Trump had approved a 28-point plan for reaching a peaceful settlement between Russia and Ukraine. The plan reportedly had been in the works for several weeks, with contributions from Russian envoy Kirill Dmitriev and Trump’s special envoy, Steve Witkoff. But while Washington seems keen to press ahead with the plan, considerable opposition has surfaced from European officials, which, in turn, is likely to stymie hopes of a resolution to this brutal, nearly four-year conflict anytime soon.
With the European contingent effectively cut off from the US plan’s draft-proposal process, clear schisms have emerged between Washington and Brussels over their respective positions for ending the war. While it appears that Trump wants a decisive end to the conflict—as evidenced by the liberal number of concessions handed to Russia, which, in itself, is indicative of Moscow’s dominant position on the battlefield—many across the pond want the fighting to continue, such that European leadership is eager for the West to continue providing Kyiv with military support indefinitely.
Such a position is partly motivated by Europe’s dismay over what it views as a peace plan that flagrantly favours Russia. Among the most contentious points is the requirement that Ukraine relinquish large swathes of territory it still controls, including Crimea, Luhansk and Donetsk, while Kherson and Zaporizhzhia would be frozen along the existing lines of conflict. Ukraine’s army would also be reduced from 880,000 troops to 600,000, while NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) would be prohibited from stationing forces in Ukraine.
In addition, Ukraine would not be allowed to join NATO—as confirmed by a new provision in the organisation’s statutes that would prohibit the country’s future admission—but would be eligible to join the European Union (EU). And frozen Russian assets currently held in European banks would be released and used to invest in Russian-US ventures, with the US entitled to 50 percent of the profits. On the plus side for Ukraine, its sovereignty would be “confirmed”, with a “total and complete comprehensive non-aggression agreement between Russia, Ukraine and Europe” put in place.
Nonetheless, the vice-president of the European Commission (EC), Kaja Kallas, has made clear that the plan will fail without backing from Europe and Ukraine. “For any peace plan to succeed, it has to be supported by Ukraine, and it has to be supported by Europe,” Kallas, who is also the high representative of the European Union for foreign affairs and security policy, told reporters on November 20. “The pressure must be on the aggressor, not on the victim. Rewarding aggression will only invite more of it.”
If Ukraine capitulates, as per Russia’s plan, Nathalie Tocci, director of the Italian Institute for International Affairs (Istituto Affari Internazionali), also warned, war in the rest of Europe would be “one step closer”—a prospect that she believes Europeans already understand. “So, it’s not out of the goodness of their heart that they would stick with Ukraine, but because they understand that their own security is at stake,” Tocci told The Guardian on November 26, adding that the most likely medium-term scenario would be that the United States and Russia reach a bilateral deal, leaving Europe to stand by Ukraine.
“In this scenario, Europeans should stop deluding themselves that they can work with Trump on Ukraine,” Tocci added. “They should warmly thank the US president and persuade him to step aside and place his bets on another conflict to get his Nobel peace prize. Either way, the war goes on for now.”
Truth be told, however, European support for continued hostility stands in stark contrast to what the Ukrainian people themselves now desire. A Gallup poll published on August 7 revealed that the bulk of Ukrainians favour ending the war with Russia through negotiations, with support for fighting until victory having cratered since the early days of the conflict.
“More than three years into the war, Ukrainians’ support for continuing to fight until victory has hit a new low. In Gallup’s most recent poll of Ukraine—conducted in early July—69 percent say they favour a negotiated end to the war as soon as possible, compared with 24 percent who support continuing to fight until victory,” the Washington, D.C.-based analytics firm found. “This marks a near complete reversal from public opinion in 2022, when 73 percent favoured Ukraine fighting until victory and 22 percent preferred that Ukraine seek a negotiated end as soon as possible.”
It must also be noted that officials in Kyiv are increasingly questioning the effectiveness of Europe’s backing for Ukraine in the ongoing conflict—or the lack thereof. “The EU (which by the way has paid Russia more than €311 billion for energy and goods since February 2022) has no real strategy, no way to stop fuelling Russian budget or support Ukraine enough to win, no direct dialogue with Moscow, and no meaningful leverage over either the Kremlin or Washington,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s former press secretary Iuliia Mendel posted on X on November 23, adding that every subsequent deal for Ukraine will only be worse because Ukraine is losing. “We are losing people, territory, and the economy.”
“Arguments that ‘Russia has gained so little land’ sound almost childish when you consider the human cost. We have lost more people in three years than some European nations have as the whole population,” Mendel added. “My country is bleeding out. Many who reflexively oppose every peace proposal believe they are defending Ukraine. With all respect, that is the clearest proof they have no idea what is actually happening on the front lines and inside the country right now.”
The substantial drain on Europe’s economy from its continued support for the fighting in Eastern Ukraine also cannot be ignored. “By the end of 2025, Ukraine’s military effort, defined as its defence budget plus foreign gifts of weapons and military grants, will have cost a total of roughly $360 billion,” The Economist recently reported. “This year the war effort will require $100 billion-110 billion, the highest sum yet, equivalent to about half of Ukraine’s GDP.”
Could more funds be raised across the bloc to fund the war effort? If so, questions will increasingly be raised about member states’ ability to maintain fiscal prudence. Analysis published by Euronews, which used figures released by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, found that with $130.6 billion (€111.28 billion) provided by the US through defence support and humanitarian aid to Ukraine since the start of the conflict in February 2022, each American citizen paid $127 (€108) per year for Ukraine’s defence. “For the EU, if we once again take the Kiel Institute’s estimates of total military and financial commitments at around €138 billion, then the figure for each EU citizen is around €95 per year,” the Euronews findings also revealed.
Whilst the amounts are perhaps not eye-watering, the longer the EU insists on supporting a continuation of the war, the greater the financial burden on EU citizens at a time when the regional economy remains in a precarious position, especially in terms of industrial performance. “The sharp rise in energy prices followed the start of the war in Ukraine and Europe’s move to phase out Russian fossil fuels,” Ukrainian consultancy GMK Center reported on November 27. “According to the IEA, by the end of 2024, average electricity prices for energy-intensive industrial consumers in the EU were approximately twice as high as in the US and 50 percent higher than in China. This undermines the competitiveness of European businesses and limits investment.”
Nonetheless, the EC has projected real gross domestic product (GDP) in the EU to grow by 1.4 percent both this year and next, before rising marginally to 1.5 percent in 2027, while the eurozone will see real GDP grow by 1.3 percent this year, 1.2 percent in 2026 and 1.4 percent in 2027. Inflation, meanwhile, is expected to continue to wane over the forecast period, falling to 2.1 percent in the euro area in 2025 and then remaining around 2 percent over the next two years. In the EU, inflation will be slightly higher, falling to 2.2 percent in 2027.
After four years of devastating conflict, many hope that a peaceful resolution can be found sooner rather than later. European leaders insist, however, that Russia has no real intent of engaging in peace talks and that they must be given a seat at the table before any final deal can be struck. “Whatever the design of a future peace treaty, it is clear that much of the implementation will come down to the European Union and its Nato partners,” EC President Ursula von der Leyen recently told Parliament. “Nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine. Nothing about Europe without Europe. Nothing about Nato without Nato.”