Little is more valuable to financial-market participants than accurate predictions of future growth. With interest rates on the rise in the US, investors are anxiously looking for indications of an impending recession. But what are yield curves really telling us about future growth prospects—in the United States and also in Australia? Is dreaded recession in the cards, or is modest slowdown more likely?
Perhaps the biggest challenge facing the Australian economy right now continues to be the dramatic retreat of hard commodity prices from the generational highs back in 2011.
As one of the biggest banks operating in a commodity-exporting country such as Australia, much of our time is spent trying to comprehend how trends in commodity markets are likely to impact the economy, and our customers. Without a doubt, one of the biggest issues we face right now stems from the dramatic declines we have seen in industrial