For the world’s economy, 2021 hasn’t yet brought a break from 2020; COVID-19 remains dominant. Although all banking systems are vulnerable to upheaval, the situations for those in emerging markets are more tenuous for several reasons. S&P Global Ratings examined the three major risks facing a sample of 15 EM countries, including likely deterioration in asset quality, geopolitical and domestic policy uncertainty and vulnerability to abrupt changes in investor sentiment.
Are you wondering how to invest in 2021, a year that is starting with concerning negatives but also hopeful positives? Although predicting how this year will wind up is difficult, the investor can take steps to make the most of what is guaranteed to be another wild year of ups and downs, including capitalising on inflation surges, capturing cyclical upswings, looking to emerging markets for credit opportunities and harnessing volatility.
The COVID-19 pandemic has made 2020 a truly singular year. With a deep global recession resulting from strict lockdown measures being implemented throughout much of the world, there has been little for investors to cheer. But with signs that the worst may be mostly behind us, an increasing number of opportunities will undoubtedly present themselves as we move into 2021.
The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development has a long history of investing in emerging markets, and its contributions are most constructive during crises. With the global economy reeling from COVID-19, the EBRD ramped up its efforts to be a partner to key players in the markets in which it invests, providing emergency financing and policy direction with a focus on fostering a green economy characterized by inclusion and digitalization.
Basel III, a regulatory framework designed with the goal of enhancing international financial stability in the aftermath of the global financial crisis, was tailored to banks in advanced economies. However, regulators in emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs) are also embracing these standards, even though doing so may pose challenges to their financial development. How can Basel III be made to work for EMDEs? A new CGD Task Force report makes several recommendations.
Experienced investors know that the most lucrative returns can come in the least attractive packages. Frontier markets, the world’s pre-emerging markets, could be the new frontier for high growth—at least for those investors who can look past the higher risks. Is the frontier market worth those risks? Many investors believe it is, which is why the market is only slightly less popular than its developed and emerging counterparts.
Emerging markets are already looking forward to 2019, glad to see 2018 nearly behind them. It turned out not to be a good year for emerging markets as a whole, after being on top of the world in 2017. Factors beyond their control—such as the monetary-tightening regime in the United States and high-flying dollar, trade wars and market corrections in developed economies—are largely to blame, but recognizing this will not erase the pain.
With economic growth returning to the developed world, the end of years of quantitative easing and easy monetary policy is in view; inflation concerns are reviving, guaranteeing rising interest rates along with tightening liquidity. Emerging markets in Latin America are benefiting from higher commodity prices, and despite some political tensions are proving to be an increasingly attractive destination for investor funds.