Last year was one that saw Germany’s economic performance consistently exceed expectations. The start of 2017 saw the majority of economists predicting around 1.4 percent growth in gross domestic product (GDP) for the year.
When considering the world’s fastest-growing economies, the usual suspects of China and India invariably crop up in most discussions. Of course, this is to be expected given that, despite its recent slowdown, China’s GDP (gross domestic product) still grew by 6.7 percent in 2016
At the G20 summit on July 7, US President Donald Trump sat immediately next to his Mexican counterpart, Enrique Peña Nieto. After they each spoke about the progress being made in trade issues between the two countries, reporters volleyed a flurry of questions at the US president
Malaysia—beset by scandal, political turmoil, dropping oil prices and falling currency—hasn’t appeared to be the land of opportunity to investors in recent years. But 2017 has brought hope of a turnaround to this Southeast Asian emerging-market economy, with factors such as improved trade performance, infrastructure development and a stabilizing currency resulting in renewed investor confidence on the nation’s markets.
China is investing heavily in financial technology while the rest of the world is lagging behind, propelling the country to the forefront as the global leader in the fintech revolution. A favorable regulatory environment and a welcoming, underbanked domestic population are a few of the factors contributing to this eastward fintech migration.
Much has been made of Europe’s struggling banking sector since the turn of the decade. In October, for instance, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) reported that across the world, banks that were in charge of approximately $12 trillion of assets will continue to remain vulnerable, even if a global economic recovery takes hold.
Since the global financial crisis, central banks have resorted to monetary policy to pull their economies out of the abyss. But the time may have arrived for fiscal policy to share centre stage as the limitations of monetary policy become more apparent, and national decision-makers turn away from further fiscal-austerity measures toward stimulus.
If it seems as if the world has changed, it is because it has. Economic growth, for example, lags behind the levels reached before the 2007/2008 financial crisis even in developed countries. The need for governments to step in with proactive fiscal policies to kick start their economies has never been greater.
Anemic economic growth in advanced economies has led central banks to prescribe loose monetary policy that has not produced the cure. The problem may lie more on the supply than demand side; digital innovation in industrial operations if properly implemented could lead to the transformative revolution that will boost productivity and revive economic performance.
Forecasting economic risk is an attempt to quantify the unknowable in a complex, ever-changing system. Although they often fall short of future realities, macroeconomic forecasting models that include thoughtful and comprehensive analyses of risk factors will provide launching points for serious and useful economic-policy discussion and planning.