By Nicholas Larsen, International Banker
According to analysis by Lauri Myllyvirta, a senior fellow at the Asia Society Policy Institute (ASPI), China installed 93 gigawatts (GW) of solar capacity in May. To put that into context, the new additions were equivalent to an astonishing 230 million solar panels, at a rate of almost 100 solar panels every second, meaning that China had installed more solar capacity in a single month than any other country did in all of 2024. And while installations dramatically declined in June following the introduction of new regulations, China’s gargantuan solar-power presence is now playing a crucial role not only in building out its own clean-energy architecture but also in helping other countries do the same.
Speaking to The Guardian in late June, Myllyvirta disclosed that between January and May, China added 198 GW of solar capacity, which, along with 46 GW of wind-power installations during the same period, was calculated to be enough to generate as much electricity as Indonesia or Turkey did. China’s installed solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity has also reportedly exceeded 1,000 GW for the first time—equivalent to around half of the world’s total installed solar capacity. “We knew China’s rush to install solar and wind was going to be wild, but WOW,” Myllyvirta wrote on social media.
Many attribute this massive surge to a sense of urgency to install solar capacity before May 2025, when new regulations established by the National Energy Administration (NEA) in October 2024 came into effect. Among the new rules implemented were the promotion of self-consumption of distributed solar projects to prevent grid congestion, the support of more grid stability and a reduced reliance on centralised power plants.
Nonetheless, the astonishing magnitude of China’s solar additions through the first five months of the year was well beyond what most analysts had expected, as evidenced by the numbers produced in several reports. Rystad Energy, for example, found that China had installed a gargantuan 60 GW of new solar PV capacity in the first quarter of 2025, which was the highest ever for a first quarter in the country’s recorded history. Rooftop PV accounted for 60 percent, or 36 GW, of that total, which was also the single largest capacity for distributed PV in any single quarter.
The energy-intelligence firm also revealed that this surge in rooftop-PV installations continued into the second quarter of the year, pushing total distributed solar capacity additions for 2025 to 130 GW, comprising 92 GW from commercial and industrial (C&I) projects alongside 38 GW from residential projects. “These changes, aimed at supporting China’s dual carbon targets—peaking emissions before 2030 and achieving carbon neutrality by 2060—are guiding the distributed PV market at a more market-oriented and sustainable development pace,” the Rystad analysis, published on May 19, also stated.
While the combined impact of the utility-scale PV installation rush prior to the NEA’s new guidelines coming into force is expected to be comparatively low, Rystad noted, 2025 is nonetheless still on track to set a record, with 167 GW of new utility projects expected. “This growth is primarily driven by the large-scale project pipeline and accelerated efforts of provincial governments to meet targets under China’s 14th Five-Year Plan, which concludes this year,” the analysis also observed.
“Limitations on grid access for distributed PV projects can bring uncertainties for developers’ revenue streams, but it can also accelerate carbon trading and green certificate developments, thus creating new revenue options for developers,” the report added. “Looking ahead, steady growth in China’s annual solar PV capacity is expected until 2030.”
While analysts are expecting 2025 to be another bumper year for solar-capacity additions in China, they are also observing how effectively the country’s rising tide is helping to lift all boats.
While analysts are expecting 2025 to be another bumper year for solar-capacity additions in China, they are also observing how effectively the country’s rising tide is helping to lift all boats, with many countries across the world benefitting significantly from the Asian superpower’s solar boom. The Global Solar Power Tracker, for example, positions China as the comfortable leader in global utility-scale solar capacity for projects in the announced, pre-construction and construction phases.
“China has over 709 GW of prospective solar capacity, representing over one-third of planned solar capacity worldwide in 2025. These projects could generate approximately 1,100 terawatt hours (TWh) of electricity per year—equivalent to roughly 122 percent of Japan’s 2023 electricity consumption (909 TWh),” according to the July figures from the Tracker, produced by Global Energy Monitor (GEM), a San Francisco–based organisation that catalogues fossil fuel and renewable-energy projects worldwide.
“About 161 GW (23 percent) of prospective capacity is in announced phases, while 261 GW (37 percent) is in pre-construction phases…. China’s construction capacity exceeds 40 percent, as 287 GW has broken ground,” GEM also noted. “This is roughly four times the global average for capacity under construction (9 percent).”
What’s more, China’s exports of clean-energy technologies, such as solar panels, batteries and electric vehicles, are increasingly helping to cut emissions in other countries. “Such exports in 2024 alone are already shaving 1 percent off global emissions outside of China and, in total, will avoid some 4bn tonnes of carbon dioxide (GtCO2) over the lifetimes of the products,” Myllyvirta wrote in a separate July 22 piece for the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), an independent research organisation focussed on combatting air pollution, which also disclosed that the largest emission reductions have been associated with direct clean-technology equipment exports, particularly solar panels, followed by manufacturing at Chinese factories overseas, with overseas projects financed by Chinese investors a distant third.
“China’s clean-energy footprint almost spans the entire world, with exports to 191 of the 192 other UN member states, as well as manufacturing and project finance investments in dozens of countries,” Myllyvirta’s analysis also revealed. “Clean-energy exports from China in 2024 alone, along with its overseas investments from 2023 and 2024, are set to cut emissions in sub-Saharan Africa by around 3 percent per year once completed and in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region by 4.5 percent.”
Closer to home, meanwhile, Southeast Asia has been experiencing a massive boom from China’s clean-energy export activities. This rapidly growing region has become one of the world’s leading exporters of solar-power equipment, thanks in no small part to the relocation of Chinese manufacturers. According to Dialogue Earth, a non-profit environmental organisation, the arrival of factories backed by Chinese solar heavyweights, such as Trina Solar, LONGi (LONGi Green Energy Technology Co. Ltd.), JA Solar and Jinko Solar, has done much to transform Southeast Asian nations, including Malaysia, Vietnam, Thailand and Cambodia, into world-leading production and export hubs for a range of solar components.
Together, these countries account for more than 40 percent of the global manufacturing capacity of solar modules outside China and around 20 percent of worldwide exports, Patrick Moore and Fidelis Eka Satriastanti of Dialogue Earth reported on May 5 for Eco-Business, an Asia-Pacific intelligence organisation focussed on sustainable development and ESG (environmental, social and governance) performance.
“China’s success in solar manufacturing did not happen overnight; it was the result of decades of sustained policy support, including long-term investment, research and development funding, and the development of integrated industrial clusters,” Muyi Yang, a senior energy analyst at global energy think tank Ember, explained to Dialogue Earth. “Even with these strong domestic policies, it still took years for Chinese companies to become global leaders,” Yang added, noting that Chinese technological expertise had helped to accelerate Southeast Asia’s solar industry.
Bloomberg recently noted that Southeast Asia’s solar exports have primarily targeted the United States, with more than 80 percent of the equipment it imported in the first half of 2024 sourced from Malaysia, Vietnam, Thailand and Cambodia. But a blitz of tariffs on Southeast Asia now threatens the region’s solar-export industry, especially to the US, whilst also raising the cost of renewable projects within the US. The new tariffs “might induce producers to leave Southeast Asia altogether and move to other regions where production costs and tariffs are relatively lower, such as the Middle East,” according to BloombergNEF Southeast Asia analyst Felix Kosasih.
That said, Southeast Asian nations still enjoy cost advantages relative to China, which faces even more draconian trade headwinds when exporting to the US. “Accordingly, there should still be some scope for production moving away from China into other countries in the region,” Capital Economics stated.