2019 was the year of two consequential free-trade agreements involving Latin American and Caribbean countries: USMCA and EU-Mercosur. How much of a positive impact these South-North agreements will have on especially countries in Latin America and the Caribbean, which have been languishing after the commodity boom, is yet to be seen. But they are likely to be more effectual than the South-South agreements that are in place in the region.
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Many commodities have watched their prices drop, but iron ore is one exception; its price has surged to levels not seen since 2014. The price of iron ore, the main ingredient of steel, is being propelled upward by the combination of growing shortage and intensifying demand. Devastating circumstances affecting the world’s top producers, Brazil and Australia, along with booming demand in China are mainly to blame for the supply shortfall.
President Jair Bolsonaro assumed Brazil’s highest political office on January 1, 2019. From mid-2016 to the end of 2018, a team of experts worked diligently to improve Brazil’s integration with the global economy in such areas as relations with international organizations, domestic framework for officially supported export credits and trade policy. Their initiatives provide the new administration with a strong path to prosperity through reduction of lingering barriers to international inclusion.
Infrastructure that is up to code is vitally important to sustaining a country’s economy, but even developed countries are falling behind in their infrastructure investment. Effective infrastructure investment needs to be a combined effort of governments, multilateral development banks and private investors, but it lags behind in its appeal to private investors. What measures can be taken to draw more private-sector financing into this crucial foundation of economic growth?
With economic growth returning to the developed world, the end of years of quantitative easing and easy monetary policy is in view; inflation concerns are reviving, guaranteeing rising interest rates along with tightening liquidity. Emerging markets in Latin America are benefiting from higher commodity prices, and despite some political tensions are proving to be an increasingly attractive destination for investor funds.
As economic conditions return to “normal” in the industrial world, policy interest rates will inevitably rise from zero to “normal”—but not necessarily in Latin America and the Caribbean. Central banks in LAC will need to tailor their monetary-policy decisions to tackle the three-pronged challenge of currency depreciation, higher inflation and deceleration in economic activity, as capital flies away from emerging markets.
Brazil’s economy is emerging from a difficult few years—but when analysing its prospects, a positive, long-term view is warranted, based on the country’s important position in world trade. With a little help from its friends and its own internal enterprise, this major South American economy, the world’s ninth largest by nominal GDP, has every reason to expect a triumphant comeback.
In the midst of the political and economic turmoil that has plagued Brazil in recent times, there is one financial sector that appears to have particularly strong credentials for buoyant growth over the coming years.
It’s safe to say that the Brazilian government has had a trust problem in recent years, and that this disconnect from approved practices has detrimentally affected its once vigorous economy. The IMF, in its recent Fiscal Transparency Evaluation for Brazil, took a close look at the areas in which the South American titan is succeeding and failing to live up to fiscal-transparency expectations.